Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-16
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Texas TechTTU | 7-1 | 10-1 | 98.8% | |
| 2 |  BYUBYU | 6-1 | 9-1 | 65.0% | |
| T3 |  Arizona StateASU | 5-2 | 7-3 | 18.8% | |
| T3 |  UtahUTAH | 5-2 | 8-2 | 15.4% | |
| T3 |  CincinnatiCIN | 5-2 | 7-3 | 1.7% | |
| T3 |  HoustonHOU | 5-2 | 8-2 | 0.3% | |
| T7 |  ArizonaARIZ | 4-3 | 7-3 | - | |
| T7 |  Kansas StateKSU | 4-3 | 5-5 | - | |
| T9 |  BaylorBAY | 3-4 | 5-5 | - | |
| T9 |  Iowa StateISU | 3-4 | 6-4 | - | |
| T9 |  KansasKU | 3-4 | 5-5 | - | |
| T9 |  TCUTCU | 3-4 | 6-4 | - | |
| 13 |  West VirginiaWVU | 2-6 | 4-7 | - | |
| T14 |  ColoradoCOLO | 1-6 | 3-7 | - | |
| T14 |  UCFUCF | 1-6 | 4-6 | - | |
| 16 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 0-7 | 1-9 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 98.8%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% (+0.2%) | 98.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 98.3% (-0.5%) | 99.4% (+0.6%) | |
| 98.8% (+0.0%) | 98.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 98.8% (-0.0%) | 98.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 98.8% (-0.0%) | 98.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 98.4% (-0.4%) | 100.0% (+1.2%) | |
| 98.3% (-0.5%) | 98.9% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma StateColoradoCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 1.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ColoradoCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 25.7%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
ColoradoOklahoma StateCincinnatiTCUBaylorIowa StateOklahoma StateCincinnatiKansas StateOklahoma StateCincinnatiHoustonArizonaOklahoma StateHoustonArizonaKansasOklahoma StateCincinnatiHoustonKansasOklahoma StateHoustonBaylorKansas StateOklahoma StateArizonaKansasKansas StateData from 2025-11-16
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas TechTTU | 100% | 72.4% | - | 98.8% |
| BYUBYU | 100% | 45.6% | 2.4% | 65.0% |
| Arizona StateASU | - | 40.3% | <0.1% | 18.8% |
| UtahUTAH | - | 20.0% | 2.8% | 15.4% |
| CincinnatiCIN | - | 13.2% | <0.1% | 1.7% |
| HoustonHOU | - | 4.3% | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| ArizonaARIZ | - | - | - | - |
| BaylorBAY | - | - | - | - |
| ColoradoCOLO | - | - | - | - |
| Iowa StateISU | - | - | - | - |
| KansasKU | - | - | - | - |
| Kansas StateKSU | - | - | <0.1% | - |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | - | - | - | - |
| TCUTCU | - | - | - | - |
| UCFUCF | - | - | - | - |
| West VirginiaWVU | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-16
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas TechTTU(7-1) | 95.7% | 4.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8.0 |
| BYUBYU(6-1) | 43.5% | 46.5% | 10.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.3 |
| UtahUTAH(5-2) | - | 73.2% | 24.7% | 2.1% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.7 |
| Arizona StateASU(5-2) | - | 46.7% | 43.8% | 9.5% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.4 |
| CincinnatiCIN(5-2) | - | 12.8% | 47.5% | 39.7% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.7 |
| HoustonHOU(5-2) | - | 6.9% | 38.9% | 54.2% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| Kansas StateKSU(4-3) | - | - | 14.3% | 77.3% | 8.4% | - | - | - | - | 5.1 |
| ArizonaARIZ(4-3) | - | - | 19.5% | 50.2% | 30.3% | - | - | - | - | 4.9 |
| Iowa StateISU(3-4) | - | - | - | 60.6% | 37.5% | 1.9% | - | - | - | 4.6 |
| TCUTCU(3-4) | - | - | - | 50.4% | 41.3% | 8.3% | - | - | - | 4.4 |
| BaylorBAY(3-4) | - | - | - | 36.3% | 51.1% | 12.6% | - | - | - | 4.2 |
| KansasKU(3-4) | - | - | - | 4.6% | 39.6% | 55.8% | - | - | - | 3.5 |
| UCFUCF(1-6) | - | - | - | - | - | 21.5% | 75.1% | 3.4% | - | 2.2 |
| West VirginiaWVU(2-6) | - | - | - | - | - | 4.3% | 95.7% | - | - | 2.0 |
| ColoradoCOLO(1-6) | - | - | - | - | - | 2.6% | 30.5% | 66.9% | - | 1.4 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(0-7) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.3% | 9.5% | 90.3% | 0.1 |
Data from 2025-11-16