Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W27-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W35-9 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W36-20 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | W27-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L11-35 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W39-17 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W31-28 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W24-16 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | L35-45 | |
| 11 | 11/07 | W30-27 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:29% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:24% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 6.9% | 4.3% |
| 6-3 | 38.9% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 54.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (-0.2%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.3%) | 1.0% (+0.7%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.8%) | 0.1% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma State
CincinnatiHouston
Baylor
Iowa State
Colorado
Kansas StateCCG: 13.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
HoustonCCG: 1.0% • Scenario: 28.7%
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
4.3%
6.9%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16