Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L17-20 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W34-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W70-0 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W37-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W38-30 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W20-11 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W49-17 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W41-20 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | L14-45 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | L24-30 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:44% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:29% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 12.8% | 13.2% |
| 6-3 | 47.5% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 39.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.8% (+0.1%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-1.7%) | 3.9% (+2.2%) | |
| 1.8% (+0.1%) | 1.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.0%) | 1.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (+0.0%) | 1.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.5%) | 3.2% (+1.5%) | |
| 6.5% (+4.8%) | 0.8% (-0.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma StateCincinnati
TCU
Arizona
Kansas
Colorado
Kansas StateCCG: 62.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CincinnatiCCG: 3.9% • Scenario: 43.9%
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
13.2%
12.8%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16