Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
65.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W69-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W34-13 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | W38-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W33-27 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W24-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W41-27 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | L7-29 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | W44-13 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:78% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 43.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 46.5% | 45.6% |
| 6-3 | 10.0% | 2.4% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 65.6% (+0.6%) | 65.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 89.6% (+24.6%) | 33.6% (-31.4%) | |
| 65.2% (+0.2%) | 64.5% (-0.5%) | |
| 64.3% (-0.7%) | 65.6% (+0.6%) | |
| 64.3% (-0.8%) | 65.4% (+0.4%) | |
| 59.4% (-5.6%) | 81.2% (+16.2%) | |
| 69.2% (+4.2%) | 64.2% (-0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma StateBYU
ColoradoCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BYUCCG: 89.6% • Scenario: 56.1%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
BYU
TCUColoradoOklahoma StateBYUColoradoData from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
43.5%Any 1 loss
45.6%
46.5%
53.5%
12.6%
42.7%
33.9%2.4%
10.0%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16