Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W43-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W63-9 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-6 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W48-14 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W42-10 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L21-24 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W53-7 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W45-14 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | W55-28 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:84% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:87% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 73.2% | 20.0% |
| 6-3 | 24.7% | 2.8% |
| 5-4 | 2.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 15.1% (-0.2%) | 15.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-14.2%) | 33.5% (+18.2%) | |
| 15.4% (+0.1%) | 15.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 15.9% (+0.5%) | 14.9% (-0.5%) | |
| 16.1% (+0.7%) | 15.0% (-0.4%) | |
| 15.4% (+0.1%) | 15.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 2.4% (-12.9%) | 17.8% (+2.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oklahoma State
Cincinnati
Houston
Arizona
Kansas
Colorado
Kansas StateCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
CincinnatiUtahCCG: 38.9% • Scenario: 36.8%
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
20.0%
73.2%Any 1 loss
2.8%
24.7%2.8%
10.9%2.8%
13.8%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16