Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W45-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L19-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L27-34 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-33 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W38-3 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W45-21 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L18-27 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W46-45 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | L34-37 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | L17-34 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | W32-25 | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:75% |
Data from 2025-11-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 74.6% | 14.8% |
| 5-3 | 25.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 11.0% (+0.0%) | 10.7% (-0.4%) | |
| 0.0% (-11.0%) | 14.8% (+3.8%) | |
| 11.0% (-0.0%) | 11.5% (+0.4%) | |
| 23.1% (+12.0%) | 8.3% (-2.7%) | |
| 11.0% (-0.1%) | 11.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 17.7% (+6.6%) | 8.2% (-2.9%) | |
| 3.3% (-7.8%) | 56.6% (+45.6%) | |
| 11.1% (+0.0%) | 11.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.8% (-0.2%) | 11.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 11.2% (+0.1%) | 10.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 14.6% (+3.6%) | 0.0% (-11.0%) |
Data from 2025-11-23
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-23