Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W40-6 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/12 | Win prob:29% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:22% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:73% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:31% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:53% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:22% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:33% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:39% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:41% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:15% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 97.2% |
| 7-2 | 0.8% | 66.4% |
| 6-3 | 4.1% | 7.6% |
| 5-4 | 12.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 24.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 29.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 20.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 7.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1.0% (+0.1%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.1%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.1%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.2%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.1%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.1%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
94.4%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
78.8%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
31.4%
1.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.5%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
9.3%
2.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.4%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.7%
0.2%2.6%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02