Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
63.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W38-31 | |
| 1 | 8/29 | W38-21 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W30-23 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:62% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:76% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:81% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:50% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:89% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:78% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/21 | Win prob:95% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 13.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 34.0% | 95.9% |
| 6-2 | 31.6% | 50.7% |
| 5-3 | 15.2% | 2.8% |
| 4-4 | 4.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 62.6% (-0.3%) | 63.1% (+0.2%) | |
| 63.1% (+0.1%) | 62.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 62.6% (-0.4%) | 63.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 63.3% (+0.3%) | 62.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 63.1% (+0.1%) | 62.7% (-0.3%) | |
| 63.1% (+0.1%) | 63.0% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico
Utah State
Portland State
Nevada
Wyoming
SouthernCCG: 73.9% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UCLA
Hawai'i
UtahCCG: 63.4% • Scenario: 45.9%
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
8.6%Any 1 loss
96.7%
26.5%
100.0%
5.3%
98.1%
2.5%97.9%
2.8%97.9%
0.5%97.7%
1.1%97.7%
1.7%97.0%
1.8%
96.8%
2.0%
93.5%
8.7%Any 2 losses
68.9%
32.3%98.5%
0.7%98.3%
0.3%98.2%
1.1%98.0%
1.5%97.5%
1.7%97.4%
1.2%97.2%
1.1%92.9%
5.3%74.7%
0.1%74.6%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.1%
0.2%70.4%
0.5%67.6%
0.1%67.5%
0.1%66.4%
0.3%63.7%
0.4%63.2%
0.5%62.9%
0.2%62.8%
0.3%61.7%
0.4%59.9%
0.5%59.7%
0.8%59.3%
0.6%57.4%
0.5%56.2%
<0.1%55.7%
0.3%55.0%
0.4%53.0%
1.2%51.7%
0.6%50.7%
1.6%50.0%
0.4%47.5%
2.5%43.8%
2.6%40.6%
1.9%40.4%
2.1%Any 3 losses
30.2%
20.8%74.8%
0.1%71.7%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%67.8%
<0.1%66.3%
0.3%66.1%
0.2%65.9%
<0.1%65.4%
0.2%64.3%
0.3%61.9%
<0.1%61.4%
0.2%59.7%
0.1%59.5%
0.2%59.3%
<0.1%58.4%
0.4%56.5%
0.5%56.4%
0.3%55.0%
0.4%54.9%
0.2%54.5%
0.4%49.5%
1.0%48.8%
0.3%46.8%
0.7%46.4%
0.3%45.8%
1.6%44.3%
1.7%40.0%
1.3%39.5%
1.1%17.6%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.0%
0.2%5.0%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.2%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.4%
0.1%3.4%
0.5%3.4%
0.4%3.3%
0.5%3.3%
0.5%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
0.2%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
0.3%2.8%
0.7%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.1%
0.3%2.0%
0.7%1.7%
0.6%1.7%
0.1%1.7%
0.6%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
0.4%0.8%
0.3%Any 4 losses
2.8%
5.6%25.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%6.1%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.2%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.2%
0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
0.3%2.8%
0.5%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
0.3%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.4%2.0%
0.3%2.0%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
0.2%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.4%0.7%
0.3%0.5%
0.4%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07