Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities

CCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	4-4	Overall
UNLVUNLV	100%	95.9%	50.7%	2.8%	-	63.0%
Boise StateBOIS	100%	99.1%	67.1%	8.4%	-	48.9%
Fresno StateFRES	100%	94.7%	44.2%	2.2%	<0.1%	31.9%
San José StateSJSU	100%	87.1%	30.4%	0.8%	-	20.6%
Air ForceAF	100%	98.9%	59.4%	5.0%	-	11.4%
Utah StateUSU	100%	99.7%	62.2%	5.0%	-	8.7%
WyomingWYO	100%	96.0%	48.4%	2.7%	-	5.8%
Colorado StateCSU	100%	99.0%	59.8%	4.3%	-	4.0%
San Diego StateSDSU	100%	94.4%	40.4%	1.1%	-	2.6%
New MexicoUNM	100%	99.2%	61.1%	5.2%	-	2.1%
NevadaNEV	100%	100%	73.0%	10.6%	<0.1%	0.9%
Hawai'iHAW	-	100%	56.9%	8.9%	-	0.1%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	4-4	3-5	2-6	1-7	0-8	Avg Wins
UNLVUNLV(0-0)	13.9%	34.0%	31.6%	15.2%	4.4%	0.7%	<0.1%	<0.1%	0.0%	6.4
Boise StateBOIS(0-0)	5.7%	20.4%	31.0%	25.6%	12.6%	3.8%	0.7%	<0.1%	<0.1%	5.7
Fresno StateFRES(0-0)	3.2%	15.8%	29.7%	29.1%	16.0%	5.1%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%	5.4
San José StateSJSU(0-0)	2.4%	11.9%	24.9%	29.2%	20.3%	8.7%	2.3%	0.3%	<0.1%	5.1
Air ForceAF(0-0)	0.3%	2.9%	11.8%	24.9%	29.9%	20.5%	8.0%	1.6%	0.1%	4.2
Utah StateUSU(0-0)	0.2%	1.8%	9.0%	21.6%	30.0%	23.7%	10.8%	2.5%	0.2%	3.9
WyomingWYO(0-0)	0.1%	1.5%	7.7%	19.5%	29.4%	25.3%	12.7%	3.4%	0.4%	3.8
Colorado StateCSU(0-0)	<0.1%	0.7%	4.4%	14.1%	26.3%	29.1%	18.7%	6.0%	0.7%	3.4
San Diego StateSDSU(0-0)	<0.1%	0.7%	4.2%	13.3%	25.0%	28.6%	19.7%	7.4%	1.1%	3.3
New MexicoUNM(0-0)	<0.1%	0.3%	2.2%	9.6%	22.8%	30.9%	23.4%	9.3%	1.4%	3.0
NevadaNEV(0-0)	0.0%	<0.1%	0.6%	3.5%	11.8%	25.1%	31.2%	21.6%	6.1%	2.3
Hawai'iHAW(0-0)	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.7%	4.4%	14.8%	30.7%	34.0%	15.3%	1.6

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com