Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W10-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W31-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:24% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:16% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:24% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:45% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:34% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:60% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:51% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:25% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:70% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.5% | 96.0% |
| 6-2 | 7.7% | 48.4% |
| 5-3 | 19.5% | 2.7% |
| 4-4 | 29.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 25.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 12.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 5.7% (-0.1%) | 5.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.2% (+0.4%) | 5.5% (-0.3%) | |
| 5.8% (+0.0%) | 5.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.6% (-0.1%) | 5.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 5.8% (-0.0%) | 5.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 5.9% (+0.2%) | 5.8% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 15.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 6.2% • Scenario: 44.9%
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
79.9%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%91.6%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
56.8%
3.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%97.9%
0.1%96.1%
0.3%92.0%
0.3%88.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.8%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%56.9%
<0.1%56.4%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.2%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%51.4%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%48.7%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.8%
0.1%45.6%
<0.1%41.8%
<0.1%41.0%
<0.1%40.2%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.2%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%32.2%
<0.1%32.1%
0.2%31.3%
<0.1%29.7%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
24.0%
10.7%100.0%
<0.1%81.1%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%67.1%
<0.1%65.1%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.8%
<0.1%60.6%
0.2%60.6%
0.2%60.0%
0.1%59.6%
<0.1%59.2%
0.1%56.3%
0.3%54.8%
0.1%54.2%
0.2%53.7%
<0.1%51.8%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%46.0%
0.1%45.8%
0.5%45.3%
0.3%42.9%
<0.1%39.6%
0.5%37.0%
0.3%35.6%
0.2%30.3%
0.8%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
0.2%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.8%
0.3%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.5%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
0.2%2.0%
0.5%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
0.3%1.1%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07