Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W23-20 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | L6-40 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W37-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:16% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:14% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:26% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:20% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:12% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:38% | |
| 13 | 11/21 | Win prob:5% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:30% |
Data from 2025-09-07
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 7-1 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.1% | 56.9% |
| 5-3 | 0.7% | 8.9% |
| 4-4 | 4.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 14.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 30.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 34.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 15.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-07
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-07
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UCLA
Air Force
Portland State
Middle Tennessee
Utah
SouthernCCG: 1.4% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UCLAUtahCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 51.1%
Data from 2025-09-07
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
46.6%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
10.7%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-07
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-07