UtahUtes

2-0 T2nd (0-0) in B12

Data from 2025-09-07 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

15.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@UCLAUCLA	W43-10
2	9/06	vsCal PolyCP	W63-9
3	9/13	@WyomingWYO	Win prob:76%
4	9/20	vsTexas TechTTU	Win prob:66%
5	9/27	@West VirginiaWVU	Win prob:65%
7	10/11	vsArizona StateASU	Win prob:48%
8	10/18	@BYUBYU	Win prob:40%
9	10/25	vsColoradoCOLO	Win prob:60%
10	11/01	vsCincinnatiCIN	Win prob:77%
12	11/15	@BaylorBAY	Win prob:51%
13	11/22	vsKansas StateKSU	Win prob:53%
14	11/28	@KansasKU	Win prob:42%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.4%	100.0%
8-1	3.4%	99.0%
7-2	11.4%	74.3%
6-3	22.2%	15.1%
5-4	26.9%	0.0%
4-5	21.0%	0%
3-6	10.6%	0%
2-7	3.4%	0%
1-8	0.6%	0%
0-9	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

27.7%

27.3%

15.9%

15.4%

13.8%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
SamfordSAM@BaylorBAY	15.3% (-0.4%)	15.7% (+0.0%)
Northwestern StateNWST@CincinnatiCIN	15.4% (-0.3%)	15.6% (+0.0%)
Iowa StateISU@Arkansas StateARST	15.7% (+0.1%)	15.2% (-0.4%)
Kansas StateKSU@ArizonaARIZ	15.5% (-0.1%)	15.8% (+0.2%)
Texas StateTXST@Arizona StateASU	15.6% (+0.0%)	15.6% (-0.0%)
UtahUTAH@WyomingWYO	15.6% (-0.0%)	15.7% (+0.1%)
Abilene ChristianACU@TCUTCU	15.5% (-0.1%)	15.6% (+0.0%)
ColoradoCOLO@HoustonHOU	15.6% (-0.0%)	15.7% (+0.1%)
PittsburghPITT@West VirginiaWVU	15.7% (+0.1%)	15.6% (-0.0%)
Oregon StateORST@Texas TechTTU	15.8% (+0.1%)	15.6% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Samford

Northwestern State

Kansas State

Wyoming

Abilene Christian

Oregon State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Iowa State

Kansas State

TCU

Pittsburgh

CCG: 16.2% • Scenario: 21.1%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.3%

Any 1 loss

98.9%

2.6%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.6%

0.3%

99.5%

0.2%

99.4%

0.5%

98.8%

0.2%

98.3%

0.4%

98.2%

0.4%

97.9%

0.3%

Any 2 losses

76.6%

9.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.3%

0.1%

99.3%

0.1%

98.1%

0.1%

96.9%

0.1%

89.3%

0.1%

87.3%

0.2%

86.6%

0.1%

86.5%

<0.1%

83.8%

0.2%

83.7%

0.1%

83.6%

0.1%

82.6%

<0.1%

82.3%

0.4%

80.8%

0.2%

80.1%

0.2%

79.1%

0.1%

79.0%

0.1%

78.7%

<0.1%

78.6%

0.2%

77.9%

0.1%

77.5%

0.5%

76.9%

0.7%

76.8%

0.3%

76.3%

0.3%

75.7%

<0.1%

75.3%

0.3%

74.6%

0.2%

74.2%

0.1%

73.0%

0.2%

72.6%

0.4%

72.2%

0.1%

72.1%

0.2%

69.8%

0.3%

67.9%

0.5%

67.9%

0.1%

67.3%

0.4%

64.6%

0.3%

63.9%

0.3%

63.7%

0.5%

63.6%

0.2%

Any 3 losses

23.6%

19.6%

90.3%

<0.1%

90.3%

<0.1%

89.7%

<0.1%

87.0%

<0.1%

86.8%

<0.1%

82.8%

<0.1%

82.5%

<0.1%

82.3%

<0.1%

82.1%

0.1%

81.8%

<0.1%

80.6%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

78.8%

<0.1%

78.7%

<0.1%

78.2%

<0.1%

77.9%

<0.1%

77.8%

<0.1%

77.1%

0.1%

76.7%

0.1%

75.3%

<0.1%

74.8%

0.1%

74.4%

0.1%

73.5%

<0.1%

72.9%

<0.1%

71.7%

<0.1%

71.4%

<0.1%

70.8%

<0.1%

70.1%

0.2%

69.5%

<0.1%

69.3%

<0.1%

69.2%

0.1%

66.9%

0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

65.8%

0.2%

64.2%

0.2%

55.3%

<0.1%

34.3%

<0.1%

32.4%

<0.1%

31.1%

<0.1%

29.3%

<0.1%

27.0%

<0.1%

26.1%

<0.1%

24.6%

<0.1%

24.4%

0.2%

23.5%

0.1%

23.4%

<0.1%

23.1%

<0.1%

23.1%

<0.1%

23.0%

0.2%

22.9%

<0.1%

22.9%

0.1%

22.8%

0.2%

22.5%

0.1%

22.1%

0.1%

21.2%

0.1%

20.8%

0.3%

20.5%

0.2%

19.4%

0.1%

19.4%

0.1%

18.1%

0.1%

18.1%

0.4%

17.6%

0.1%

17.6%

<0.1%

17.2%

<0.1%

17.1%

0.3%

17.1%

0.1%

17.0%

0.1%

16.8%

0.2%

16.8%

0.2%

16.8%

0.2%

16.7%

0.1%

16.5%

0.7%

16.5%

<0.1%

16.1%

0.2%

16.0%

0.1%

16.0%

<0.1%

16.0%

0.2%

15.8%

0.3%

15.7%

0.2%

15.7%

0.2%

15.2%

0.1%

15.2%

0.2%

15.1%

0.4%

15.1%

0.5%

15.0%

0.3%

15.0%

0.1%

14.9%

0.4%

14.3%

0.2%

14.3%

0.3%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.2%

0.2%

13.9%

0.1%

13.7%

0.1%

13.6%

0.3%

13.6%

0.2%

13.5%

0.1%

13.3%

0.2%

13.3%

0.5%

13.1%

0.4%

12.8%

0.3%

12.7%

0.1%

12.7%

0.3%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.4%

0.6%

11.9%

0.3%

11.6%

0.2%

11.5%

0.7%

11.3%

0.2%

11.2%

0.5%

10.8%

0.5%

10.7%

0.3%

10.7%

0.5%

10.5%

<0.1%

10.5%

0.1%

10.3%

0.3%

10.1%

0.3%

9.9%

<0.1%

8.6%

0.2%

7.5%

<0.1%

Any 4 losses

13.3%

6.3%

46.7%

<0.1%

34.4%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

30.6%

<0.1%

29.4%

<0.1%

28.3%

<0.1%

25.5%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

24.0%

<0.1%

23.2%

<0.1%

23.1%

<0.1%

22.9%

<0.1%

22.4%

<0.1%

21.4%

<0.1%

21.4%

0.1%

20.9%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

19.3%

<0.1%

19.0%

0.1%

19.0%

0.1%

18.6%

<0.1%

18.5%

0.1%

18.2%

<0.1%

18.0%

<0.1%

17.9%

<0.1%

17.6%

<0.1%

17.6%

<0.1%

17.0%

<0.1%

17.0%

<0.1%

16.7%

0.2%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.4%

<0.1%

15.8%

<0.1%

15.6%

<0.1%

15.4%

0.1%

15.4%

<0.1%

15.2%

<0.1%

14.7%

0.1%

14.6%

<0.1%

14.6%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.3%

0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

13.7%

<0.1%

13.6%

<0.1%

13.6%

<0.1%

13.3%

<0.1%

13.2%

<0.1%

13.0%

<0.1%

13.0%

0.1%

12.8%

<0.1%

12.8%

<0.1%

12.7%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.0%

0.2%

11.8%

<0.1%

11.8%

<0.1%

11.7%

<0.1%

11.7%

<0.1%

11.6%

0.1%

11.0%

0.1%

10.8%

0.2%

10.8%

0.1%

10.5%

<0.1%

10.5%

<0.1%

9.8%

<0.1%

9.4%

<0.1%

9.3%

<0.1%

9.1%

0.1%

8.8%

0.1%

8.6%

<0.1%

8.1%

<0.1%

7.5%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

1.2%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

0.6%

0.2%

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-07 • SportsSimulate.com