ArizonaWildcats

3-0 T6th (0-0) in B12

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsHawai'iHAW	W40-6
2	9/06	vsWeber StateWEB	W48-3
3	9/12	vsKansas StateKSU	W23-17
5	9/27	@Iowa StateISU	Win prob:25%
6	10/04	vsOklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:86%
7	10/11	vsBYUBYU	Win prob:31%
8	10/18	@HoustonHOU	Win prob:38%
10	11/01	@ColoradoCOLO	Win prob:25%
11	11/08	vsKansasKU	Win prob:37%
12	11/15	@CincinnatiCIN	Win prob:38%
13	11/22	vsBaylorBAY	Win prob:42%
14	11/28	@Arizona StateASU	Win prob:14%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.0%	100.0%
8-1	0.1%	97.4%
7-2	1.0%	61.2%
6-3	4.7%	6.2%
5-4	13.7%	0%
4-5	25.4%	0%
3-6	28.7%	0%
2-7	19.4%	0%
1-8	6.4%	0%
0-9	0.6%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

35.8%

24.7%

21.0%

9.9%

8.6%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
BYUBYU@ColoradoCOLO	0.9% (-0.1%)	1.1% (+0.1%)
CincinnatiCIN@KansasKU	1.1% (+0.1%)	1.0% (-0.1%)
TCUTCU@Arizona StateASU	0.9% (-0.1%)	1.1% (+0.1%)
BaylorBAY@Oklahoma StateOKST	1.0% (+0.0%)	0.9% (-0.1%)
HoustonHOU@Oregon StateORST	1.0% (+0.0%)	1.0% (+0.0%)
ArizonaARIZ@Iowa StateISU	2.8% (+1.8%)	0.4% (-0.6%)
UCFUCF@Kansas StateKSU	1.0% (+0.0%)	1.0% (+0.0%)
UtahUTAH@West VirginiaWVU	1.0% (+0.0%)	1.0% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

BYU

Cincinnati

Arizona State

Oklahoma State

Houston

Arizona

UCF

West Virginia

CCG: 15.8% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Arizona

CCG: 2.8% • Scenario: 24.5%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

97.3%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

92.3%

<0.1%

87.5%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

61.4%

1.0%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

90.0%

<0.1%

89.5%

<0.1%

81.3%

<0.1%

80.8%

<0.1%

76.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

73.7%

<0.1%

71.4%

<0.1%

70.3%

0.1%

70.0%

<0.1%

69.7%

<0.1%

63.9%

<0.1%

62.5%

<0.1%

59.3%

<0.1%

58.8%

<0.1%

58.7%

<0.1%

56.8%

<0.1%

56.1%

<0.1%

55.0%

<0.1%

54.5%

0.1%

53.8%

<0.1%

53.8%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

43.9%

<0.1%

43.8%

<0.1%

35.8%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

6.2%

4.6%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

22.9%

<0.1%

22.7%

<0.1%

21.7%

<0.1%

17.9%

<0.1%

17.9%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.4%

<0.1%

15.7%

<0.1%

15.6%

<0.1%

15.4%

<0.1%

11.8%

<0.1%

11.5%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

9.3%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

8.7%

<0.1%

8.6%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

8.1%

<0.1%

7.4%

0.1%

7.4%

<0.1%

7.3%

0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

6.5%

0.1%

6.5%

<0.1%

6.1%

<0.1%

5.8%

<0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

5.5%

<0.1%

5.3%

0.2%

5.3%

<0.1%

5.3%

0.1%

5.1%

0.1%

5.0%

<0.1%

5.0%

0.2%

4.9%

0.2%

4.9%

0.1%

4.9%

<0.1%

4.9%

<0.1%

4.7%

0.1%

4.7%

0.1%

4.7%

<0.1%

4.7%

0.1%

4.5%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

4.0%

0.2%

3.6%

0.3%

3.3%

<0.1%

3.3%

<0.1%

3.1%

<0.1%

3.1%

<0.1%

2.6%

0.1%

2.2%

<0.1%

0.9%

0.2%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com