Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-21
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Southern MissUSM | 1-0 | 2-2 | 0.3% | |
| T1 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 1-0 | 2-2 | 0.2% | |
| T3 |  Texas StateTXST | 0-0 | 3-1 | 53.8% | |
| T3 |  James MadisonJMU | 0-0 | 2-1 | 49.4% | |
| T3 |  South AlabamaUSA | 0-1 | 1-3 | 26.1% | |
| T3 |  MarshallMRSH | 0-0 | 2-2 | 22.0% | |
| T3 |  Old DominionODU | 0-0 | 2-1 | 20.2% | |
| T3 |  TroyTROY | 0-0 | 2-2 | 12.5% | |
| T3 |  LouisianaUL | 0-0 | 1-3 | 6.0% | |
| T3 |  App StateAPP | 0-1 | 2-1 | 5.1% | |
| T3 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2.9% | |
| T3 |  Arkansas StateARST | 0-0 | 1-3 | 1.2% | |
| T3 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0.2% | |
| T3 |  UL MonroeULM | 0-0 | 2-1 | 0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 53.8%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 53.7% (-0.1%) | 54.5% (+0.8%) | |
| 53.6% (-0.1%) | 54.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 53.9% (+0.1%) | 53.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 53.5% (-0.3%) | 53.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 53.9% (+0.1%) | 53.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 53.5% (-0.3%) | 54.2% (+0.4%) | |
| 52.9% (-0.9%) | 54.0% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern MissLouisianaSouth AlabamaGeorgia Southern
LibertyUL MonroeApp StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UL Monroe
Boise StateCCG: 54.5% • Scenario: 30.9%
Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas StateTXST | 100% | 81.8% | 56.4% | 26.9% | 4.1% | - | 53.8% |
| James MadisonJMU | 100% | 77.3% | 47.7% | 15.7% | 2.4% | - | 49.4% |
| South AlabamaUSA | - | 100% | 43.8% | 8.3% | 0.8% | - | 26.1% |
| MarshallMRSH | 100% | 69.6% | 39.1% | 14.3% | 2.1% | - | 22.0% |
| Old DominionODU | 100% | 52.9% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 0.4% | - | 20.2% |
| TroyTROY | 100% | 57.0% | 26.0% | 4.5% | 0.5% | - | 12.5% |
| LouisianaUL | 100% | 73.0% | 43.9% | 15.4% | 1.7% | - | 6.0% |
| App StateAPP | - | 100% | 51.8% | 7.4% | 0.7% | - | 5.1% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | 100% | 56.3% | 13.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% | - | 2.9% |
| Arkansas StateARST | 100% | 63.1% | 24.4% | 6.0% | 0.6% | - | 1.2% |
| Southern MissUSM | 100% | 56.5% | 21.0% | 2.3% | - | - | 0.3% |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | 100% | 43.3% | 13.8% | 2.5% | <0.1% | 0.2% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | 100% | 73.3% | 9.0% | 0.7% | - | - | 0.2% |
| UL MonroeULM | - | 71.4% | 32.4% | 6.0% | 0.9% | - | 0.1% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU(0-0) | 8.7% | 27.3% | 33.8% | 21.2% | 7.3% | 1.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 6.0 |
| Texas StateTXST(0-0) | 8.1% | 25.2% | 33.1% | 22.5% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.9 |
| Old DominionODU(0-0) | 3.9% | 19.1% | 33.0% | 28.1% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.6 |
| South AlabamaUSA(0-1) | - | 9.1% | 31.6% | 36.1% | 17.9% | 4.6% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.2 |
| MarshallMRSH(0-0) | 1.6% | 9.6% | 22.8% | 29.8% | 22.7% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| TroyTROY(0-0) | 0.9% | 7.4% | 22.4% | 32.6% | 24.3% | 10.0% | 2.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.8% | 9.8% | 24.4% | 32.0% | 22.4% | 7.8% | 1.4% | <0.1% | 4.1 |
| App StateAPP(0-1) | - | 0.5% | 5.4% | 20.5% | 33.8% | 26.7% | 10.9% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 3.8 |
| LouisianaUL(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.8% | 5.2% | 17.0% | 30.0% | 29.5% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 0.2% | 3.6 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(1-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.9% | 6.3% | 21.7% | 37.8% | 26.8% | 6.4% | - | 3.0 |
| Arkansas StateARST(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 8.1% | 21.1% | 31.3% | 25.4% | 10.4% | 1.6% | 2.9 |
| Southern MissUSM(1-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.9% | 5.2% | 18.6% | 34.9% | 31.1% | 9.3% | - | 2.8 |
| UL MonroeULM(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.8% | 4.5% | 15.9% | 31.5% | 33.0% | 14.3% | 1.7 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 13.4% | 29.6% | 35.7% | 17.2% | 1.5 |
Data from 2025-09-21