TroyTrojans

2-2 T3rd (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

12.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsNichollsNICH	W38-20
2	9/06	@ClemsonCLEM	L16-27
3	9/13	vsMemphisMEM	L7-28
4	9/20	@BuffaloBUF	W21-17
6	10/04	vsSouth AlabamaUSA	Win prob:44%
7	10/11	@Texas StateTXST	Win prob:23%
8	10/18	@UL MonroeULM	Win prob:82%
9	10/25	vsLouisianaUL	Win prob:67%
10	11/01	vsArkansas StateARST	Win prob:79%
12	11/13	@Old DominionODU	Win prob:30%
13	11/22	vsGeorgia StateGAST	Win prob:87%
14	11/29	@Southern MissUSM	Win prob:76%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.9%	100.0%
7-1	7.4%	57.0%
6-2	22.4%	26.0%
5-3	32.6%	4.5%
4-4	24.3%	0.5%
3-5	10.0%	0%
2-6	2.2%	0%
1-7	0.3%	0%
0-8	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

48.8%

22.0%

21.4%

5.2%

2.7%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Jacksonville StateJXST@Southern MissUSM	12.5% (+0.1%)	12.0% (-0.4%)
MarshallMRSH@LouisianaUL	12.4% (-0.0%)	12.5% (+0.0%)
South AlabamaUSA@North TexasUNT	12.4% (-0.1%)	12.5% (+0.0%)
Georgia SouthernGASO@James MadisonJMU	12.7% (+0.2%)	12.4% (-0.0%)
LibertyLIB@Old DominionODU	12.2% (-0.2%)	12.6% (+0.1%)
Arkansas StateARST@UL MonroeULM	12.5% (+0.1%)	12.4% (-0.1%)
App StateAPP@Boise StateBOIS	13.0% (+0.5%)	12.3% (-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Southern Miss

Louisiana

South Alabama

Georgia Southern

Liberty

Arkansas State

App State

CCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Jacksonville State

North Texas

Arkansas State

CCG: 12.8% • Scenario: 36.7%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.9%

Any 1 loss

57.1%

7.4%

100.0%

2.0%

100.0%

0.1%

98.9%

0.3%

98.4%

0.2%

95.4%

0.2%

80.9%

0.4%

34.3%

1.1%

21.2%

2.9%

Any 2 losses

31.1%

18.8%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.3%

0.4%

98.4%

0.6%

94.4%

0.5%

86.2%

<0.1%

81.1%

0.9%

80.9%

<0.1%

35.4%

2.6%

33.7%

0.2%

31.8%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

24.4%

6.9%

23.6%

0.4%

22.9%

0.1%

20.3%

<0.1%

20.2%

0.1%

15.0%

0.1%

6.9%

0.4%

4.6%

0.6%

4.2%

0.9%

4.2%

0.2%

3.3%

0.3%

2.0%

0.8%

1.5%

0.5%

0.8%

1.4%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com