Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
18.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W28-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L24-34 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L13-23 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:34% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:73% | |
| 7 | 10/14 | Win prob:89% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:60% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:75% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:57% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:42% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:88% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 6.1% | 97.3% |
| 6-2 | 23.3% | 47.2% |
| 5-3 | 34.0% | 3.2% |
| 4-4 | 24.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 9.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 18.0% (-0.0%) | 18.3% (+0.3%) | |
| 17.3% (-0.7%) | 18.7% (+0.7%) | |
| 17.8% (-0.2%) | 18.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 18.2% (+0.2%) | 17.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 16.9% (-1.1%) | 20.9% (+2.9%) | |
| 18.7% (+0.7%) | 17.9% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Jacksonville State
Missouri State
Kennesaw StateLiberty
UTEP
New Mexico StateCCG: 29.5% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UTEPCCG: 20.9% • Scenario: 27.6%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.9%
2.1%Any 1 loss
63.9%
11.9%
97.0%
4.0%72.1%
0.3%72.0%
0.8%69.8%
0.3%
65.9%
1.5%47.5%
0.7%
34.4%
1.4%
32.7%
2.9%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21