MarshallThundering Herd

2-2 T3rd (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

22.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@GeorgiaUGA	L7-45
2	9/06	vsMissouri StateMOST	L20-21
3	9/13	vsEastern KentuckyEKU	W38-7
4	9/20	@Middle TennesseeMTSU	W42-28
5	9/27	@LouisianaUL	Win prob:60%
7	10/11	vsOld DominionODU	Win prob:52%
8	10/18	vsTexas StateTXST	Win prob:44%
10	10/30	@Coastal CarolinaCCU	Win prob:82%
11	11/08	vsJames MadisonJMU	Win prob:42%
12	11/15	@Georgia StateGAST	Win prob:83%
13	11/22	@App StateAPP	Win prob:57%
14	11/29	vsGeorgia SouthernGASO	Win prob:75%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	1.6%	100.0%
7-1	9.6%	69.6%
6-2	22.8%	39.1%
5-3	29.8%	14.3%
4-4	22.7%	2.1%
3-5	10.4%	0%
2-6	2.7%	0%
1-7	0.4%	0%
0-8	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

54.2%

26.0%

12.5%

6.1%

1.2%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Jacksonville StateJXST@Southern MissUSM	21.9% (-0.1%)	22.4% (+0.4%)
MarshallMRSH@LouisianaUL	21.5% (-0.4%)	22.6% (+0.7%)
South AlabamaUSA@North TexasUNT	21.8% (-0.2%)	22.1% (+0.1%)
Georgia SouthernGASO@James MadisonJMU	25.7% (+3.8%)	21.3% (-0.7%)
LibertyLIB@Old DominionODU	21.7% (-0.2%)	22.1% (+0.1%)
Arkansas StateARST@UL MonroeULM	22.0% (+0.0%)	21.9% (-0.0%)
App StateAPP@Boise StateBOIS	22.0% (+0.1%)	21.9% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Southern Miss

Marshall

North Texas

Georgia Southern

Liberty

Arkansas State

App State

CCG: 53.8% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Georgia Southern

CCG: 25.7% • Scenario: 14.8%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

1.6%

Any 1 loss

69.6%

9.6%

100.0%

2.1%

100.0%

1.1%

99.5%

0.4%

98.9%

0.4%

88.5%

0.5%

87.1%

1.3%

47.2%

1.5%

19.0%

2.4%

Any 2 losses

43.2%

20.6%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

1.4%

100.0%

0.2%

99.5%

0.4%

99.5%

0.4%

93.9%

0.4%

89.7%

0.7%

88.1%

0.9%

87.6%

1.6%

59.3%

1.8%

57.0%

1.0%

44.9%

<0.1%

24.3%

0.1%

23.9%

0.1%

22.2%

1.5%

22.2%

2.9%

21.3%

0.3%

19.4%

0.3%

9.3%

0.4%

9.1%

0.3%

6.9%

0.3%

4.6%

0.4%

4.2%

0.5%

2.9%

1.2%

1.6%

0.8%

1.5%

0.5%

1.1%

1.8%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com