Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L12-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W34-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L10-52 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L31-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:40% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:16% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:80% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:33% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:22% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:28% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:58% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.8% | 73.0% |
| 6-2 | 5.2% | 43.9% |
| 5-3 | 17.0% | 15.4% |
| 4-4 | 30.0% | 1.7% |
| 3-5 | 29.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 14.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 6.0% (-0.0%) | 6.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 6.1% (+0.0%) | 6.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.0% (-0.0%) | 6.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.6% (-0.4%) | 6.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 6.0% (+0.0%) | 6.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.1% (+0.1%) | 5.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 5.9% (-0.1%) | 6.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern MissLouisiana
South Alabama
Georgia Southern
Liberty
UL Monroe
Boise StateCCG: 16.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Marshall
North Texas
James Madison
Arkansas StateCCG: 6.5% • Scenario: 20.7%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
72.2%
0.8%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%
66.0%
0.1%54.1%
0.2%
15.2%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21