Mid-American Conference

Mid-American Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-28

Mid-American ConferenceConference Standings

T1OhioOHIO1-03-280.7%
T1BuffaloBUF1-02-323.9%
T1W MichiganWMU1-02-37.4%
T1C MichiganCMU1-03-20.6%
5ToledoTOL1-13-225.4%
T6Miami OHM-OH0-01-324.7%
T6Bowling GreenBGSU0-12-321.8%
T6N IllinoisNIU0-01-314.7%
T6E MichiganEMU0-11-40.4%
T6MassachusettsMASS0-00-40.2%
T6Ball StBALL0-01-30.1%
T6AkronAKR0-11-40.1%
T6KentKENT0-11-3-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Mid-American Conference CCG Matchups

118.1%
OhioOHIO
vs
TOLToledo
216.8%
Miami OHM-OH
vs
OHIOOhio
316.6%
Bowling GreenBGSU
vs
OHIOOhio
415.0%
BuffaloBUF
vs
OHIOOhio
59.0%
N IllinoisNIU
vs
OHIOOhio
64.3%
OhioOHIO
vs
WMUW Michigan
72.5%
BuffaloBUF
vs
TOLToledo
82.3%
BuffaloBUF
vs
M-OHMiami OH
92.0%
Miami OHM-OH
vs
TOLToledo
101.8%
BuffaloBUF
vs
NIUN Illinois
111.5%
Bowling GreenBGSU
vs
M-OHMiami OH
121.4%
Bowling GreenBGSU
vs
BUFBuffalo
131.2%
Miami OHM-OH
vs
NIUN Illinois
141.2%
N IllinoisNIU
vs
TOLToledo
151.0%
Bowling GreenBGSU
vs
NIUN Illinois

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Mid-American ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Mid-American Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 80.7%
Game
OhioCCG OddsAway
OhioCCG OddsHome
E MichiganEMU@BuffaloBUF
82.6%
(+1.9%)		80.1%
(-0.6%)
W MichiganWMU@MassachusettsMASS
80.2%
(-0.5%)		81.8%
(+1.1%)
Miami OHM-OH@N IllinoisNIU
80.4%
(-0.3%)		80.9%
(+0.3%)
OhioOHIO@Ball StBALL
82.6%
(+1.9%)		59.6%
(-21.1%)
KentKENT@OklahomaOU
84.0%
(+3.3%)		80.7%
(-0.0%)
C MichiganCMU@AkronAKR
80.5%
(-0.2%)		80.8%
(+0.2%)

Best Winner Combination for Ohio

E MichiganEastern MichiganMassachusettsMassachusettsMiami OHMiami (OH)Ball StBall StateKentKent StateAkronAkron

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Ohio

OhioOhio

CCG: 82.6% • Scenario: 91.8%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Mid-American ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-07-16-25-3Overall
OhioOHIO100%99.6%61.1%2.5%80.7%
ToledoTOL-93.2%26.0%0.1%25.4%
Miami OHM-OH100%98.8%50.5%1.7%24.7%
BuffaloBUF100%88.4%22.6%0.2%23.9%
Bowling GreenBGSU-90.2%22.8%0.3%21.8%
N IllinoisNIU100%91.5%26.3%0.2%14.7%
W MichiganWMU100%95.0%34.6%0.6%7.4%
C MichiganCMU100%83.5%19.5%0.1%0.6%
E MichiganEMU-100%70.2%4.0%0.4%
MassachusettsMASS100%90.0%34.7%0.8%0.2%
Ball StBALL-100%42.9%0.6%0.1%
AkronAKR-76.5%21.5%0.1%0.1%
KentKENT---2.1%-

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Mid-American ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
OhioOHIO(1-0)25.8%39.7%24.8%8.1%1.5%0.1%<0.1%0.0%-6.8
ToledoTOL(1-1)-16.2%39.3%32.3%10.8%1.4%<0.1%0.0%-5.6
BuffaloBUF(1-0)2.7%15.7%32.5%31.0%14.4%3.3%0.4%<0.1%-5.5
Bowling GreenBGSU(0-1)-14.8%36.5%32.7%13.1%2.7%0.3%<0.1%0.0%5.5
Miami OHM-OH(0-0)1.4%9.8%25.8%32.1%21.4%7.8%1.6%0.1%<0.1%5.1
N IllinoisNIU(0-0)0.9%7.8%24.9%34.0%23.1%7.9%1.4%<0.1%0.0%5.0
W MichiganWMU(1-0)0.2%2.6%13.0%30.1%32.7%17.0%4.0%0.4%-4.4
C MichiganCMU(1-0)0.0%0.2%2.1%10.8%28.6%35.3%19.2%3.7%-3.3
AkronAKR(0-1)-<0.1%0.4%4.0%17.5%34.4%30.5%11.8%1.4%2.7
Ball StBALL(0-0)0.0%<0.1%0.3%2.5%12.5%31.6%35.4%15.9%1.9%2.5
E MichiganEMU(0-1)-<0.1%0.4%3.1%12.7%27.5%32.6%19.3%4.4%2.4
MassachusettsMASS(0-0)0.0%<0.1%0.4%3.1%12.2%27.3%33.3%19.5%4.1%2.4
KentKENT(0-1)-0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.7%5.4%21.5%42.0%30.4%1.0

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com