Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L10-42 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L26-27 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L7-47 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L6-42 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:31% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:70% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:17% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:41% | |
| 10 | 11/04 | Win prob:41% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:18% | |
| 12 | 11/18 | Win prob:4% | |
| 13 | 11/25 | Win prob:14% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 90.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.4% | 34.7% |
| 5-3 | 3.1% | 0.8% |
| 4-4 | 12.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 27.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 33.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 19.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 4.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.3%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Buffalo
Western Michigan
Northern Illinois
Ball State
Kent State
AkronCCG: 7.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MassachusettsCCG: 0.5% • Scenario: 30.8%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28