Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
23.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L10-23 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L17-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L17-20 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:78% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:83% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:90% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:36% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/19 | Win prob:51% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:32% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 15.7% | 88.4% |
| 6-2 | 32.5% | 22.6% |
| 5-3 | 31.0% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 14.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 10.3% (-13.7%) | 27.9% (+3.9%) | |
| 23.4% (-0.5%) | 25.1% (+1.2%) | |
| 24.6% (+0.7%) | 23.3% (-0.7%) | |
| 23.7% (-0.3%) | 27.1% (+3.1%) | |
| 23.1% (-0.9%) | 24.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 23.8% (-0.1%) | 24.1% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Eastern Michigan
Massachusetts
Miami (OH)
Ball State
Kent State
Central MichiganCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BuffaloCCG: 27.9% • Scenario: 77.6%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.7%Any 1 loss
88.5%
15.7%
96.9%
0.3%96.3%
0.6%96.1%
0.8%95.4%
0.5%
89.6%
5.9%
85.6%
4.9%84.4%
2.6%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28