Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W35-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W24-13 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W24-17 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:99% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:22% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:58% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:26% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:30% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:19% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.9% | 96.9% |
| 6-2 | 5.6% | 34.6% |
| 5-3 | 17.9% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 30.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 28.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 13.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 3.7% (+0.8%) | 2.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.8% (-0.1%) | 3.4% (+0.5%) | |
| 3.1% (+0.1%) | 2.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.9% (-0.1%) | 2.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.4% (+0.4%) | 2.8% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kentucky
Florida
Kent State
AlabamaCCG: 16.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
FloridaCCG: 3.4% • Scenario: 16.1%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
97.0%
0.9%
99.3%
0.1%97.9%
0.2%
97.8%
<0.1%
97.7%
<0.1%
95.9%
0.2%
95.7%
<0.1%
94.8%
0.1%Any 2 losses
34.6%
5.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%65.6%
0.1%59.1%
0.1%56.1%
0.1%52.4%
<0.1%49.6%
0.1%45.2%
<0.1%44.6%
0.5%44.0%
0.1%42.6%
0.2%39.5%
0.2%38.9%
0.2%38.5%
0.6%36.0%
0.2%35.9%
0.4%35.4%
0.1%31.1%
0.1%30.8%
0.1%30.2%
0.9%20.1%
0.6%18.8%
0.7%Any 3 losses
2.0%
1.7%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
0.3%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.3%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28