Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
25.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-24 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W60-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W45-3 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:52% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:98% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:69% | |
| 11 | 11/05 | Win prob:73% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:52% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:93% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:90% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 16.2% | 93.2% |
| 6-2 | 39.3% | 26.0% |
| 5-3 | 32.3% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 10.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 28.1% (+2.8%) | 24.6% (-0.8%) | |
| 25.1% (-0.3%) | 26.1% (+0.7%) | |
| 24.5% (-0.9%) | 26.2% (+0.9%) | |
| 24.7% (-0.7%) | 32.6% (+7.2%) | |
| 24.4% (-1.0%) | 25.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 25.2% (-0.2%) | 25.5% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Eastern Michigan
Massachusetts
Miami (OH)
Ball State
Kent State
Central MichiganCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Eastern Michigan
OklahomaCCG: 28.2% • Scenario: 22.2%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
93.3%
11.1%Any 1 loss
36.7%
31.9%
92.8%
5.1%56.8%
0.8%54.9%
0.2%53.3%
1.3%
32.7%
4.0%24.2%
10.2%
18.6%
10.2%Any 2 losses
25.2%
13.0%67.4%
0.4%52.0%
0.1%50.8%
0.6%32.1%
1.9%23.6%
4.7%19.1%
4.8%5.0%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28