Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
80.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L31-34 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W17-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L9-37 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W52-35 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W35-20 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:92% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:81% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:84% | |
| 10 | 11/04 | Win prob:76% | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:82% | |
| 12 | 11/18 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:68% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 25.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 39.7% | 99.6% |
| 6-2 | 24.8% | 61.1% |
| 5-3 | 8.1% | 2.5% |
| 4-4 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 82.6% (+1.9%) | 80.1% (-0.6%) | |
| 80.2% (-0.5%) | 81.8% (+1.1%) | |
| 80.4% (-0.3%) | 80.9% (+0.3%) | |
| 82.6% (+1.9%) | 59.6% (-21.1%) | |
| 84.0% (+3.3%) | 80.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 80.5% (-0.2%) | 80.8% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Eastern Michigan
Massachusetts
Miami (OH)
Ball State
Kent State
AkronCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OhioCCG: 82.6% • Scenario: 91.8%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
25.8%Any 1 loss
99.6%
39.7%100.0%
1.0%100.0%
4.8%
99.9%
11.7%99.9%
2.3%
99.9%
6.1%
99.6%
5.7%98.4%
8.2%Any 2 losses
61.1%
24.8%95.6%
<0.1%91.4%
0.4%90.8%
0.2%79.1%
0.5%75.8%
0.4%75.4%
1.1%75.3%
1.0%73.7%
0.2%72.2%
0.3%71.7%
0.5%69.2%
0.3%67.3%
1.1%66.2%
2.6%65.3%
0.7%65.2%
1.5%63.0%
2.1%60.1%
1.4%55.5%
2.8%53.8%
1.8%46.7%
3.8%45.8%
1.9%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28