Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-28
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 1-0 | 3-1 | 57.7% | |
| T1 |  Fresno StateFRES | 1-0 | 4-1 | 37.5% | |
| T1 |  Utah StateUSU | 1-0 | 3-2 | 13.4% | |
| 4 |  Hawai'iHAW | 1-1 | 4-2 | 0.5% | |
| T5 |  UNLVUNLV | 0-0 | 4-0 | 57.3% | |
| T5 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 0-0 | 3-1 | 12.0% | |
| T5 |  San José StateSJSU | 0-0 | 1-3 | 9.5% | |
| T5 |  New MexicoUNM | 0-0 | 3-1 | 6.3% | |
| T5 |  Colorado StateCSU | 0-0 | 1-3 | 3.5% | |
| T5 |  WyomingWYO | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1.9% | |
| T5 |  NevadaNEV | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0.5% | |
| T5 |  Air ForceAF | 0-3 | 1-3 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 57.7%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 58.5% (+0.8%) | 57.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 58.9% (+1.3%) | 56.8% (-0.9%) | |
| 58.3% (+0.6%) | 57.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 61.0% (+3.3%) | 57.1% (-0.6%) | |
| 57.0% (-0.7%) | 60.4% (+2.7%) | |
| 57.2% (-0.5%) | 57.8% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Boise StateSan José StateColorado StateNevadaWyomingAir ForceCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WyomingCCG: 60.4% • Scenario: 20.0%
Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 99.7% | 67.2% | 7.9% | 57.7% |
| UNLVUNLV | 100% | 93.9% | 42.9% | 2.4% | 57.3% |
| Fresno StateFRES | 100% | 96.2% | 51.7% | 3.8% | 37.5% |
| Utah StateUSU | 100% | 98.9% | 56.6% | 3.8% | 13.4% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 94.7% | 45.4% | 2.4% | 12.0% |
| San José StateSJSU | 100% | 85.9% | 26.2% | 0.5% | 9.5% |
| New MexicoUNM | 100% | 98.1% | 55.1% | 4.1% | 6.3% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 99.0% | 59.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% |
| WyomingWYO | 100% | 91.0% | 35.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | 100% | 50.8% | 4.1% | 0.5% |
| NevadaNEV | 100% | 100% | 76.1% | 13.4% | 0.5% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | - | 6.6% | <0.1% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLVUNLV(0-0) | 12.6% | 32.6% | 32.0% | 16.8% | 5.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 6.3 |
| Boise StateBOIS(1-0) | 8.1% | 25.7% | 32.9% | 22.3% | 8.8% | 1.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | - | 6.0 |
| Fresno StateFRES(1-0) | 3.5% | 17.3% | 31.3% | 28.7% | 14.5% | 4.0% | 0.6% | <0.1% | - | 5.5 |
| San José StateSJSU(0-0) | 0.7% | 5.2% | 15.9% | 26.9% | 27.1% | 16.8% | 6.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 4.4 |
| Utah StateUSU(1-0) | 0.4% | 3.6% | 14.7% | 28.8% | 30.4% | 16.9% | 4.7% | 0.5% | - | 4.4 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(0-0) | 0.5% | 4.4% | 14.8% | 26.3% | 27.7% | 17.8% | 6.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 4.3 |
| New MexicoUNM(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.4% | 7.3% | 19.4% | 29.4% | 25.8% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 0.4% | 3.8 |
| Colorado StateCSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.7% | 13.0% | 25.3% | 29.1% | 20.2% | 7.1% | 0.9% | 3.3 |
| WyomingWYO(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.5% | 12.2% | 24.5% | 29.4% | 20.9% | 7.8% | 1.2% | 3.2 |
| Hawai'iHAW(1-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.6% | 4.4% | 16.8% | 33.1% | 32.5% | 12.6% | - | 2.7 |
| Air ForceAF(0-3) | - | - | - | 0.9% | 8.6% | 27.5% | 36.4% | 21.8% | 4.8% | 2.2 |
| NevadaNEV(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 7.6% | 19.9% | 32.0% | 27.9% | 10.5% | 1.9 |
Data from 2025-09-28