UNLVRebels

4-0 T5th (0-0) in MWC

Data from 2025-09-28 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

57.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/23	vsIdaho StateIDST	W38-31
1	8/29	vsSam HoustonSHSU(N)	W38-21
2	9/06	vsUCLAUCLA	W30-23
4	9/20	@Miami (OH)M-OH	W41-38
6	10/04	@WyomingWYO	Win prob:80%
7	10/11	vsAir ForceAF	Win prob:85%
8	10/18	@Boise StateBOIS	Win prob:47%
10	11/01	vsNew MexicoUNM	Win prob:82%
11	11/08	@Colorado StateCSU	Win prob:76%
12	11/15	vsUtah StateUSU	Win prob:80%
13	11/21	vsHawai'iHAW	Win prob:92%
14	11/29	@NevadaNEV	Win prob:86%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	12.6%	100.0%
7-1	32.6%	93.9%
6-2	32.0%	42.9%
5-3	16.8%	2.4%
4-4	5.0%	0%
3-5	1.0%	0%
2-6	0.1%	0%
1-7	0.0%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

49.2%

27.2%

9.0%

7.9%

6.7%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Boise StateBOIS@Notre DameND	56.3% (-1.0%)	57.3% (+0.0%)
New MexicoUNM@San José StateSJSU	59.4% (+2.1%)	55.8% (-1.5%)
Colorado StateCSU@San Diego StateSDSU	60.0% (+2.7%)	55.8% (-1.5%)
NevadaNEV@Fresno StateFRES	64.5% (+7.2%)	56.1% (-1.2%)
UNLVUNLV@WyomingWYO	63.2% (+5.9%)	33.6% (-23.7%)
Air ForceAF@NavyNAVY	57.9% (+0.7%)	57.1% (-0.2%)

Best Winner Combination for

Boise State

New Mexico

Colorado State

Nevada

Wyoming

Air Force

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UNLV

CCG: 63.2% • Scenario: 80.0%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

12.6%

Any 1 loss

93.9%

32.6%

97.6%

2.3%

97.3%

2.1%

97.2%

2.6%

97.1%

3.2%

96.7%

4.0%

96.4%

1.1%

95.2%

3.1%

90.3%

14.3%

Any 2 losses

42.9%

32.0%

67.2%

0.2%

64.2%

0.6%

62.4%

0.4%

61.7%

0.7%

61.6%

1.0%

59.1%

0.3%

58.8%

0.7%

58.3%

0.5%

57.9%

0.5%

57.9%

0.1%

56.9%

0.2%

56.0%

0.4%

55.1%

0.7%

54.1%

0.9%

53.0%

0.6%

51.0%

0.5%

48.5%

0.5%

48.2%

0.3%

46.2%

0.8%

43.9%

1.0%

43.1%

2.6%

42.1%

2.4%

40.2%

0.7%

39.3%

1.2%

38.5%

4.4%

38.2%

3.5%

33.9%

3.0%

25.0%

3.4%

Any 3 losses

2.4%

16.5%

13.9%

0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

7.6%

0.1%

6.4%

0.2%

5.3%

<0.1%

5.2%

<0.1%

5.2%

<0.1%

4.9%

0.3%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.7%

<0.1%

4.2%

<0.1%

4.1%

0.2%

4.0%

0.1%

3.9%

0.2%

3.8%

0.2%

3.6%

0.3%

3.5%

0.2%

3.4%

0.1%

3.3%

0.2%

3.2%

0.8%

3.2%

0.4%

3.2%

0.6%

3.0%

0.2%

2.9%

0.4%

2.8%

0.1%

2.7%

0.1%

2.7%

<0.1%

2.6%

0.1%

2.5%

0.7%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.4%

1.2%

2.3%

0.2%

2.3%

0.6%

2.3%

0.5%

2.3%

0.1%

2.3%

0.8%

2.0%

<0.1%

1.9%

0.1%

1.9%

0.6%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.6%

0.7%

1.6%

0.1%

1.5%

0.9%

1.4%

0.9%

1.3%

0.2%

1.3%

0.2%

1.2%

1.1%

0.9%

0.8%

0.1%

0.7%

0.3%

0.6%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com