NavyMidshipmen

4-0 T1st (3-0) in AAC

Data from 2025-09-28 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

28.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsVMIVMI	W52-7
2	9/06	vsUABUAB	W38-24
3	9/13	@TulsaTLSA	W42-23
5	9/27	vsRiceRICE	W21-13
6	10/04	vsAir ForceAF	Win prob:78%
7	10/11	@TempleTEM	Win prob:84%
9	10/25	vsFlorida AtlanticFAU	Win prob:90%
10	11/01	@North TexasUNT	Win prob:35%
11	11/08	@Notre DameND	Win prob:3%
12	11/15	vsSouth FloridaUSF	Win prob:68%
14	11/27	@MemphisMEM	Win prob:28%
	12/13	vsArmyARMY(N)	Win prob:43%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	2.2%	100.0%
8-1	14.0%	84.0%
7-2	33.0%	40.2%
6-3	33.7%	5.0%
5-4	14.4%	0%
4-5	2.5%	0%
3-6	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

45.3%

32.2%

11.3%

6.2%

4.9%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
TulsaTLSA@MemphisMEM	34.7% (+5.8%)	28.8% (-0.1%)
Florida AtlanticFAU@RiceRICE	28.8% (-0.1%)	29.0% (+0.1%)
ArmyARMY@UABUAB	28.3% (-0.7%)	32.0% (+3.1%)
CharlotteCLT@South FloridaUSF	26.7% (-2.3%)	29.2% (+0.3%)
UTSAUTSA@TempleTEM	28.0% (-0.9%)	32.5% (+3.6%)
Air ForceAF@NavyNAVY	28.9% (-0.0%)	28.9% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Tulsa

Florida Atlantic

UAB

Charlotte

Temple

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Temple

CCG: 32.5% • Scenario: 20.6%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

97.7%

1.9%

100.0%

1.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

94.1%

<0.1%

76.4%

<0.1%

75.6%

0.1%

Any 2 losses

82.4%

12.0%

100.0%

2.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.5%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

91.3%

0.2%

91.2%

0.3%

90.9%

<0.1%

89.5%

0.8%

80.8%

0.2%

80.6%

0.1%

78.7%

3.0%

78.0%

4.3%

76.9%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

70.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

30.0%

<0.1%

29.4%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

15.4%

<0.1%

13.3%

<0.1%

8.8%

<0.1%

2.4%

0.2%

Any 3 losses

44.0%

28.9%

100.0%

0.6%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

94.7%

<0.1%

93.9%

<0.1%

91.7%

0.3%

91.3%

1.1%

91.1%

0.3%

90.9%

<0.1%

90.6%

0.4%

85.1%

<0.1%

78.9%

0.8%

78.3%

<0.1%

77.9%

4.1%

76.7%

5.7%

76.0%

1.1%

37.1%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

18.3%

0.1%

17.9%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

14.1%

0.5%

13.9%

0.8%

13.6%

0.5%

13.2%

0.4%

9.1%

<0.1%

9.1%

2.0%

8.9%

1.5%

8.7%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

6.9%

<0.1%

5.7%

<0.1%

4.9%

<0.1%

4.2%

7.9%

2.6%

0.3%

Any 4 losses

16.2%

25.3%

90.9%

<0.1%

89.0%

0.1%

88.1%

0.3%

78.4%

1.1%

77.8%

1.6%

39.5%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

23.7%

0.2%

21.9%

0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

19.6%

0.2%

16.0%

<0.1%

15.5%

0.1%

14.2%

0.7%

13.7%

1.1%

13.4%

0.4%

12.4%

0.8%

11.8%

<0.1%

11.5%

0.2%

11.1%

<0.1%

9.0%

0.1%

8.8%

0.5%

8.6%

0.4%

8.3%

2.0%

8.2%

2.7%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.4%

<0.1%

4.1%

10.3%

3.8%

2.1%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com