Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W23-20 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | L6-40 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W37-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W23-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L21-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W44-35 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:32% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:27% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:22% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:34% | |
| 13 | 11/21 | Win prob:8% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:47% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.6% | 50.8% |
| 5-3 | 4.4% | 4.1% |
| 4-4 | 16.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 33.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 32.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 12.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.6% (+0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.2%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.1%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Boise State
New Mexico
Colorado State
Fresno State
Wyoming
Air ForceCCG: 6.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Notre Dame
NevadaCCG: 0.7% • Scenario: 14.0%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
50.9%
0.5%78.6%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%
61.1%
<0.1%
58.1%
<0.1%
57.4%
<0.1%
35.6%
0.3%Any 2 losses
4.1%
4.4%9.9%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%7.2%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
0.3%5.1%
0.2%4.1%
1.0%3.7%
0.8%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
0.6%3.2%
<0.1%2.6%
0.6%2.3%
0.2%2.0%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28