Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W10-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W31-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L6-31 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L20-37 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:20% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:45% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:35% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:52% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:30% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:20% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:67% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:53% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.5% | 91.0% |
| 6-2 | 3.5% | 35.5% |
| 5-3 | 12.2% | 1.2% |
| 4-4 | 24.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 29.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 20.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 7.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.1% (+0.2%) | 1.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (-0.3%) | 2.1% (+0.2%) | |
| 2.1% (+0.2%) | 1.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.3% (+0.4%) | 1.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.7% (-1.2%) | 6.6% (+4.7%) | |
| 1.9% (-0.0%) | 1.9% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Boise State
San José State
Colorado State
Fresno StateWyoming
Air ForceCCG: 18.8% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WyomingCCG: 6.6% • Scenario: 20.0%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
91.1%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.5%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%
93.3%
<0.1%89.7%
0.1%
84.7%
0.1%81.6%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
35.5%
3.5%72.0%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.3%
0.1%51.6%
<0.1%48.6%
0.2%47.4%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%45.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
0.1%39.0%
<0.1%38.4%
0.1%37.5%
0.1%37.4%
0.1%34.9%
0.3%33.9%
0.3%33.7%
0.3%32.2%
0.2%29.1%
0.1%29.0%
<0.1%25.8%
0.3%25.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.2%
0.6%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28