Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L11-46 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W20-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L13-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L16-31 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:15% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:35% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:23% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:17% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:21% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:35% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:33% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:14% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.3% | 76.1% |
| 5-3 | 1.8% | 13.4% |
| 4-4 | 7.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 19.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 32.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 27.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 10.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.0% (+1.5%) | 0.2% (-0.3%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Boise State
New Mexico
San Diego StateNevada
UNLV
Air ForceCCG: 7.4% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NevadaCCG: 2.0% • Scenario: 14.4%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28