Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W40-6 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W48-3 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | W23-17 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L14-39 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:88% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:26% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:38% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:24% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:29% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:38% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:41% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:15% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 0.3% | 63.8% |
| 6-3 | 2.0% | 4.6% |
| 5-4 | 8.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 21.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 31.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 25.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 9.8% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.3%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
TCU
West Virginia
Houston
Kansas State
Kansas
CincinnatiArizonaCCG: 1.8% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BaylorArizonaCCG: 0.4% • Scenario: 44.5%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
63.7%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%72.5%
<0.1%
71.9%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%
56.8%
<0.1%
52.4%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
4.6%
2.0%
50.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.1%
0.2%4.1%
0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.4%
0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28