Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W14-12 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L9-35 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-17 | |
| 4 | 9/18 | W28-17 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L13-21 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:66% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:18% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:37% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:14% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:59% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:18% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:20% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 97.9% |
| 6-2 | 0.8% | 29.8% |
| 5-3 | 5.7% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 21.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 38.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 27.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 6.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.6% (+0.3%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.3%) | 0.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
TulsaRice
UAB
Charlotte
UTSA
NavyCCG: 5.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
RiceCCG: 0.4% • Scenario: 65.6%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
33.6%
0.3%
96.8%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%
34.5%
<0.1%
33.3%
<0.1%
17.3%
<0.1%
17.3%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
29.6%
0.5%50.0%
<0.1%39.6%
0.1%38.1%
<0.1%32.1%
0.1%25.9%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28