Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W61-6 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W42-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W52-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W29-20 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W42-6 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:32% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:54% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:45% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:85% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:44% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:54% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 6.8% | 61.2% |
| 6-2 | 19.7% | 5.0% |
| 5-3 | 30.1% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 26.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 12.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 3.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 6.6% (+0.5%) | 6.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.8% (-0.2%) | 7.0% (+1.0%) | |
| 6.0% (-0.1%) | 6.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.9% (-0.1%) | 6.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.9% (+0.9%) | 5.8% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Florida
Mississippi State
Kent State
VanderbiltCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
VanderbiltCCG: 6.9% • Scenario: 18.3%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.9%Any 1 loss
61.2%
6.8%
81.4%
0.8%
71.9%
0.6%68.4%
1.2%56.4%
0.2%
55.2%
2.0%
52.3%
0.8%
51.6%
1.2%Any 2 losses
5.0%
19.7%10.1%
0.7%8.6%
0.5%8.4%
0.9%7.4%
1.0%7.1%
0.2%6.8%
0.5%6.6%
0.9%6.4%
0.8%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
1.0%5.7%
0.2%5.3%
1.5%5.1%
1.8%4.9%
1.0%4.8%
0.2%3.8%
1.7%3.0%
1.4%2.9%
2.4%2.8%
2.5%2.6%
0.3%1.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28