Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L20-27 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W31-7 | |
| 3 | 9/12 | L20-36 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W37-20 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L21-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L21-35 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:53% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:34% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:81% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:78% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:43% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:36% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | 1.8% | 3.5% |
| 5-4 | 11.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 28.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 33.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 19.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 5.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
Arizona State
Kansas
Cincinnati
Oklahoma State
Arizona
TCUCCG: 1.2% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ColoradoCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 52.5%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
3.5%
1.8%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05