American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-12

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1NavyNAVY4-06-028.3%
T1MemphisMEM2-06-076.5%
T1TulaneTULN2-05-132.6%
T1South FloridaUSF2-05-127.3%
5FL AtlanticFAU2-13-30.2%
T6ArmyARMY2-23-30.2%
T6North TexasUNT1-15-122.2%
T6East CarolinaECU1-13-39.7%
T6UT San AntonioUTSA1-13-32.8%
T6TempleTEM1-13-3<0.1%
11RiceRICE1-33-4-
T12CharlotteCLT0-31-5-
T12TulsaTLSA0-32-4-
T12UABUAB0-32-4-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

121.0%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
218.0%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
317.7%
MemphisMEM
vs
USFSouth Florida
413.2%
MemphisMEM
vs
UNTNorth Texas
54.7%
East CarolinaECU
vs
MEMMemphis
63.8%
NavyNAVY
vs
TULNTulane
73.2%
North TexasUNT
vs
USFSouth Florida
82.9%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
92.5%
NavyNAVY
vs
USFSouth Florida
102.5%
North TexasUNT
vs
TULNTulane
112.3%
NavyNAVY
vs
UNTNorth Texas
122.1%
East CarolinaECU
vs
TULNTulane
131.7%
MemphisMEM
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
141.2%
East CarolinaECU
vs
NAVYNavy
150.8%
East CarolinaECU
vs
USFSouth Florida

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 76.5%
Game
MemphisCCG OddsAway
MemphisCCG OddsHome
ArmyARMY@TulaneTULN
78.5%
(+1.9%)		75.3%
(-1.3%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@North TexasUNT
79.1%
(+2.6%)		75.7%
(-0.8%)
FL AtlanticFAU@South FloridaUSF
78.9%
(+2.4%)		76.2%
(-0.3%)
TempleTEM@CharlotteCLT
76.6%
(+0.1%)		76.4%
(-0.1%)
TulsaTLSA@East CarolinaECU
78.5%
(+2.0%)		76.5%
(-0.1%)
MemphisMEM@UABUAB
78.8%
(+2.3%)		52.2%
(-24.3%)

Best Winner Combination for Memphis

ArmyArmyNorth TexasNorth TexasFL AtlanticFlorida AtlanticTempleTempleTulsaTulsaUABUAB

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Memphis

MemphisMemphis

CCG: 78.8% • Scenario: 91.3%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-08-17-27-16-36-25-35-4Overall
MemphisMEM-100%--99.2%-37.2%<0.1%-76.5%
TulaneTULN-100%--75.6%-11.8%<0.1%-32.6%
NavyNAVY100%-86.0%35.3%-5.8%--<0.1%28.3%
South FloridaUSF-100%--89.6%-19.4%<0.1%-27.3%
North TexasUNT----63.6%-5.9%--22.2%
East CarolinaECU----75.0%-4.5%--9.7%
UT San AntonioUTSA----95.7%-37.5%<0.1%-2.8%
ArmyARMY---1.3%-0.3%---0.2%
FL AtlanticFAU----95.0%-35.1%0.1%-0.2%
TempleTEM----77.8%-24.8%--<0.1%
CharlotteCLT----------
RiceRICE----------
TulsaTLSA----------
UABUAB----------

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-08-17-27-16-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-70-8Avg Wins
MemphisMEM(2-0)-27.2%0.0%0.0%40.8%0.0%23.9%0.0%6.9%0.0%1.1%0.0%<0.1%-0.0%--6.9
NavyNAVY(4-0)1.8%0.0%14.0%35.2%0.0%35.0%0.0%13.0%0.0%1.0%0.0%------6.5
TulaneTULN(2-0)-5.9%0.0%0.0%29.1%0.0%39.5%0.0%20.7%0.0%4.4%0.0%0.3%-<0.1%--6.1
North TexasUNT(1-1)---0.0%31.1%0.0%41.4%0.0%21.4%0.0%5.3%0.0%0.7%0.0%<0.1%0.0%-6.0
South FloridaUSF(2-0)-2.6%0.0%0.0%19.2%0.0%38.6%0.0%28.8%0.0%9.4%0.0%1.3%-<0.1%--5.7
East CarolinaECU(1-1)---0.0%10.7%0.0%37.0%0.0%36.8%0.0%13.3%0.0%2.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%-5.4
ArmyARMY(2-2)---9.2%-32.8%0.0%38.6%0.0%17.3%0.0%2.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%--5.3
UT San AntonioUTSA(1-1)---0.0%0.7%0.0%5.8%0.0%19.7%0.0%33.0%0.0%28.3%0.0%11.2%1.4%-3.8
FL AtlanticFAU(2-1)---0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.4%0.0%5.2%0.0%27.1%0.0%54.5%-12.8%--3.3
TempleTEM(1-1)---0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%3.1%0.0%16.4%0.0%38.6%0.0%33.1%8.6%-2.7
RiceRICE(1-3)-------0.0%0.1%0.0%2.9%0.0%20.0%0.0%50.6%26.4%-2.0
UABUAB(0-3)-------0.0%<0.1%0.0%1.9%0.0%13.2%0.0%37.0%37.7%10.1%1.6
TulsaTLSA(0-3)-------0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%3.0%0.0%18.5%43.0%35.4%0.9
CharlotteCLT(0-3)-------0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%2.0%0.0%15.6%46.2%36.1%0.8

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com