Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L27-30 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W24-21 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L38-45 | |
| 5 | 9/25 | L6-28 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-13 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W24-7 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:39% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:70% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:96% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:54% | |
| 12/13 | Win prob:51% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 9.2% | 1.3% |
| 6-3 | 32.8% | 0.3% |
| 5-4 | 38.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 17.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5% (+0.3%) | 0.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.2%) | 0.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.2%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.7% (+0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Army
North Texas
Florida Atlantic
Charlotte
Tulsa
UABCCG: 25.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ArmyCCG: 0.5% • Scenario: 39.5%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
1.4%
6.4%Any 1 loss
1.0%
9.1%
1.2%
2.8%
1.0%
6.2%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12