Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
32.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W23-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W33-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-27 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L10-45 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W31-14 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | W26-19 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:61% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:57% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:23% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:84% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 5.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 29.1% | 75.6% |
| 6-2 | 39.5% | 11.8% |
| 5-3 | 20.7% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 4.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 14.6% (-18.0%) | 44.3% (+11.7%) | |
| 40.0% (+7.4%) | 30.3% (-2.4%) | |
| 42.7% (+10.1%) | 31.3% (-1.3%) | |
| 32.2% (-0.4%) | 33.0% (+0.4%) | |
| 31.7% (-0.9%) | 32.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 32.6% (+0.0%) | 32.3% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Tulane
UTSA
Florida Atlantic
Charlotte
Tulsa
UABCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TulaneCCG: 44.3% • Scenario: 60.5%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
5.9%Any 1 loss
75.6%
29.1%87.1%
0.5%
87.0%
3.8%
85.7%
1.1%85.6%
0.4%85.3%
4.4%
69.9%
18.8%Any 2 losses
11.8%
39.5%20.2%
<0.1%20.2%
0.7%18.5%
2.9%18.4%
0.2%18.0%
0.4%17.9%
0.9%13.6%
<0.1%13.4%
12.4%13.3%
0.4%12.3%
<0.1%12.0%
0.2%11.7%
1.2%9.5%
3.6%9.1%
14.6%7.4%
1.8%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12