MemphisTigers

6-0 T1st (2-0) in AAC

Data from 2025-10-12 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

76.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsChattanoogaUTC	W45-10
2	9/06	@Georgia StateGAST	W38-16
3	9/13	@TroyTROY	W28-7
4	9/20	vsArkansasARK	W32-31
5	9/27	@Florida AtlanticFAU	W55-26
6	10/04	vsTulsaTLSA	W45-7
8	10/18	@UABUAB	Win prob:91%
9	10/25	vsSouth FloridaUSF	Win prob:81%
10	10/31	@RiceRICE	Win prob:91%
11	11/07	vsTulaneTULN	Win prob:77%
12	11/15	@East CarolinaECU	Win prob:67%
14	11/27	vsNavyNAVY	Win prob:79%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	27.2%	100.0%
7-1	40.8%	99.2%
6-2	23.9%	37.2%
5-3	6.9%	0.1%
4-4	1.1%	0%
3-5	0.1%	0%
2-6	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

28.1%

24.2%

23.7%

17.7%

6.3%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
ArmyARMY@TulaneTULN	78.5% (+1.9%)	75.3% (-1.3%)
UTSAUTSA@North TexasUNT	79.1% (+2.6%)	75.7% (-0.8%)
Florida AtlanticFAU@South FloridaUSF	78.9% (+2.4%)	76.2% (-0.3%)
TempleTEM@CharlotteCLT	76.6% (+0.1%)	76.4% (-0.1%)
TulsaTLSA@East CarolinaECU	78.5% (+2.0%)	76.5% (-0.1%)
MemphisMEM@UABUAB	78.8% (+2.3%)	52.2% (-24.3%)

Best Winner Combination for

Army

North Texas

Florida Atlantic

Temple

Tulsa

UAB

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Memphis

CCG: 78.8% • Scenario: 91.3%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

27.2%

Any 1 loss

99.2%

40.8%

99.9%

13.6%

99.7%

2.6%

99.7%

8.4%

99.6%

2.8%

98.4%

6.2%

97.6%

7.3%

Any 2 losses

37.2%

23.9%

76.7%

0.2%

59.4%

1.3%

55.0%

1.4%

50.3%

0.9%

49.5%

0.8%

48.6%

0.6%

47.6%

0.7%

46.9%

0.6%

46.4%

0.7%

37.0%

3.1%

33.3%

4.2%

32.6%

3.6%

26.3%

1.9%

23.2%

1.7%

21.6%

2.2%

Any 3 losses

0.6%

0.7%

0.1%

0.7%

0.3%

0.5%

0.2%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com