Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W42-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W55-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L3-42 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-45 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W27-21 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L31-32 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:54% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:68% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:18% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:10% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:16% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:7% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 77.8% |
| 6-2 | 0.3% | 24.8% |
| 5-3 | 3.1% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 16.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 38.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 33.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 8.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.1%) | 0.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Army
UTSA
Florida AtlanticTemple
Tulsa
MemphisCCG: 3.6% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TempleCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 54.3%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
77.8%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
24.4%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%33.8%
<0.1%
33.3%
<0.1%
25.0%
<0.1%
21.8%
<0.1%
15.7%
0.1%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12