NavyMidshipmen

6-0 T1st (4-0) in AAC

Data from 2025-10-12 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

28.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsVMIVMI	W52-7
2	9/06	vsUABUAB	W38-24
3	9/13	@TulsaTLSA	W42-23
5	9/27	vsRiceRICE	W21-13
6	10/04	vsAir ForceAF	W34-31
7	10/11	@TempleTEM	W32-31
9	10/25	vsFlorida AtlanticFAU	Win prob:90%
10	11/01	@North TexasUNT	Win prob:33%
11	11/08	@Notre DameND	Win prob:2%
12	11/15	vsSouth FloridaUSF	Win prob:61%
14	11/27	@MemphisMEM	Win prob:21%
	12/13	vsArmyARMY(N)	Win prob:49%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	1.8%	100.0%
8-1	14.0%	86.0%
7-2	35.2%	35.3%
6-3	35.0%	5.8%
5-4	13.0%	0.0%
4-5	1.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

64.6%

13.6%

9.1%

8.4%

4.4%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
ArmyARMY@TulaneTULN	31.4% (+3.0%)	26.3% (-2.0%)
UTSAUTSA@North TexasUNT	26.3% (-2.0%)	28.9% (+0.6%)
Florida AtlanticFAU@South FloridaUSF	29.0% (+0.7%)	28.2% (-0.1%)
TempleTEM@CharlotteCLT	30.6% (+2.3%)	25.6% (-2.8%)
TulsaTLSA@East CarolinaECU	33.5% (+5.2%)	28.1% (-0.2%)
MemphisMEM@UABUAB	27.8% (-0.5%)	34.1% (+5.8%)

Best Winner Combination for

Tulane

UTSA

Florida Atlantic

Temple

Tulsa

UAB

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Temple

CCG: 30.6% • Scenario: 54.3%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

98.3%

2.0%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

1.8%

95.2%

<0.1%

95.0%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

76.9%

0.1%

Any 2 losses

84.0%

14.4%

100.0%

1.9%

94.3%

0.2%

92.9%

<0.1%

91.0%

3.8%

90.3%

<0.1%

83.8%

1.2%

83.3%

<0.1%

79.5%

6.8%

79.3%

0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

11.9%

<0.1%

11.9%

<0.1%

7.9%

0.3%

Any 3 losses

35.0%

93.5%

0.2%

89.5%

3.8%

82.5%

1.1%

78.0%

7.0%

25.0%

<0.1%

22.5%

0.4%

18.6%

0.8%

15.5%

0.1%

9.8%

14.2%

9.3%

0.3%

8.4%

4.4%

7.2%

2.4%

5.6%

<0.1%

2.2%

<0.1%

Any 4 losses

8.5%

23.3%

20.6%

0.8%

15.0%

0.4%

13.0%

0.1%

8.5%

14.7%

7.1%

2.5%

6.6%

4.6%

0.7%

0.1%

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-12 • SportsSimulate.com