Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
22.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W28-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L24-34 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L13-23 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L7-21 | |
| 7 | 10/08 | W19-8 | |
| 7 | 10/14 | W30-27 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:49% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:71% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:71% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:49% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 8.3% | 97.4% |
| 6-2 | 28.0% | 48.4% |
| 5-3 | 35.5% | 2.9% |
| 4-4 | 21.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 6.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 22.3% (-0.3%) | 23.1% (+0.4%) | |
| 20.5% (-2.2%) | 24.7% (+2.1%) | |
| 25.7% (+3.1%) | 22.3% (-0.4%) | |
| 22.1% (-0.6%) | 23.5% (+0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico State
Louisiana Tech
Middle Tennessee
Florida InternationalCCG: 30.7% • Scenario: 1.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Louisiana TechCCG: 24.7% • Scenario: 51.8%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.4%
8.3%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19