Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W35-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L7-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-41 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W38-16 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | L24-27 | |
| 8 | 10/15 | L25-38 | |
| 9 | 10/22 | Win prob:89% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:51% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:72% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:86% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:46% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:88% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 24.8% | 45.3% |
| 5-3 | 44.0% | 2.3% |
| 4-4 | 24.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 11.6% (-0.7%) | 13.1% (+0.9%) | |
| 7.3% (-4.9%) | 16.8% (+4.5%) | |
| 1.1% (-11.1%) | 13.6% (+1.3%) | |
| 11.1% (-1.2%) | 13.9% (+1.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico State
Louisiana TechDelaware
Florida InternationalCCG: 22.9% • Scenario: 8.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Louisiana TechDelawareCCG: 18.6% • Scenario: 46.2%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
45.3%
11.5%Any 1 loss
19.3%
33.8%
45.2%
13.3%
5.8%
1.6%
5.4%
1.9%
4.5%
1.4%
1.6%
11.1%1.5%
4.5%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19