Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-19
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 3-0 | 4-3 | 87.4% | |
| T1 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 2-0 | 4-2 | 21.6% | |
| 3 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 3-1 | 5-2 | 33.7% | |
| T4 |  LibertyLIB | 2-1 | 3-4 | 22.7% | |
| T4 |  Louisiana TechLT | 2-1 | 4-2 | 12.3% | |
| T6 |  Missouri StateMOST | 1-1 | 3-3 | 7.2% | |
| T6 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 1-1 | 3-3 | 2.0% | |
| T8 |  DelawareDEL | 1-2 | 3-3 | 12.2% | |
| T8 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 1-2 | 3-3 | 0.8% | |
| T8 |  UTEPUTEP | 1-2 | 2-5 | 0.1% | |
| T11 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-2 | 1-5 | <0.1% | |
| T11 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-4 | 0-7 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 87.4%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 86.7% (-0.7%) | 88.2% (+0.8%) | |
| 87.3% (-0.1%) | 87.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 87.5% (+0.1%) | 87.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 86.6% (-0.8%) | 88.5% (+1.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico StateLouisiana TechDelawareFlorida InternationalCCG: 89.5% • Scenario: 8.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Florida InternationalCCG: 88.5% • Scenario: 41.5%
Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 99.2% | 70.9% | 5.3% | 87.4% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | - | 99.1% | 59.4% | 3.2% | 33.7% |
| LibertyLIB | - | 97.4% | 48.4% | 2.9% | 22.7% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 97.9% | 51.5% | 2.6% | 21.6% |
| Louisiana TechLT | - | 97.0% | 48.6% | 2.9% | 12.3% |
| DelawareDEL | - | - | 45.3% | 2.3% | 12.2% |
| Missouri StateMOST | - | 97.4% | 40.4% | 2.3% | 7.2% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | 99.4% | 68.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | - | 49.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| UTEPUTEP | - | - | 59.6% | 3.9% | 0.1% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | - | 67.9% | 5.5% | <0.1% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-10-19
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(3-0) | 30.7% | 41.3% | 21.8% | 5.6% | 0.7% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 7.0 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(3-1) | - | 10.0% | 38.0% | 39.2% | 11.8% | 1.1% | - | - | - | 5.4 |
| LibertyLIB(2-1) | - | 8.3% | 28.0% | 35.5% | 21.4% | 6.2% | 0.6% | - | - | 5.1 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(2-0) | 0.9% | 7.7% | 24.0% | 34.0% | 24.2% | 8.2% | 1.1% | - | - | 5.0 |
| DelawareDEL(1-2) | - | - | 24.8% | 44.0% | 24.6% | 5.9% | 0.6% | <0.1% | - | 4.9 |
| Louisiana TechLT(2-1) | - | 3.0% | 17.4% | 34.4% | 31.2% | 12.5% | 1.6% | - | - | 4.6 |
| Missouri StateMOST(1-1) | - | 1.8% | 11.9% | 28.0% | 32.9% | 19.2% | 5.6% | 0.6% | - | 4.2 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(1-1) | - | 0.2% | 2.2% | 10.5% | 26.0% | 33.8% | 21.8% | 5.6% | - | 3.2 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(1-2) | - | - | 1.1% | 9.2% | 26.9% | 35.8% | 22.1% | 5.0% | - | 3.2 |
| UTEPUTEP(1-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 1.4% | 9.6% | 29.9% | 40.5% | 18.5% | - | 2.4 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 0.7% | 5.5% | 20.9% | 36.4% | 28.5% | 7.9% | 1.9 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.4% | 6.1% | 26.6% | 43.4% | 23.5% | 1.2 |
Data from 2025-10-19