Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-28 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W42-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L10-27 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L25-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L11-30 | |
| 7 | 10/08 | L8-19 | |
| 8 | 10/15 | W35-17 | |
| 9 | 10/28 | Win prob:25% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:18% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:26% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:54% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:12% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 0.1% | 59.6% |
| 5-3 | 1.4% | 3.9% |
| 4-4 | 9.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 29.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 40.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 18.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Missouri State
Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee
Kennesaw StateCCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 1.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
New Mexico State
Louisiana TechCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 22.6%
Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19