Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L9-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L9-56 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-13 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W28-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-16 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | W35-7 | |
| 8 | 10/21 | Win prob:59% | |
| 9 | 10/28 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:57% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:20% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:58% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:30% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 7.7% | 97.9% |
| 6-2 | 24.0% | 51.5% |
| 5-3 | 34.0% | 2.6% |
| 4-4 | 24.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 8.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 21.4% (-0.3%) | 22.0% (+0.4%) | |
| 19.3% (-2.4%) | 23.8% (+2.2%) | |
| 23.7% (+2.1%) | 21.4% (-0.3%) | |
| 29.8% (+8.2%) | 10.1% (-11.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico State
Louisiana Tech
Middle TennesseeKennesaw StateCCG: 36.1% • Scenario: 1.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateCCG: 29.8% • Scenario: 58.5%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.9%Any 1 loss
97.9%
7.7%100.0%
0.6%
100.0%
0.3%
99.8%
0.6%
99.4%
0.6%
98.3%
2.0%
96.5%
3.4%Any 2 losses
51.5%
24.0%82.9%
0.2%78.8%
0.5%75.7%
0.2%71.9%
0.2%69.8%
0.5%65.7%
0.5%60.8%
0.7%60.3%
1.2%60.1%
2.6%59.0%
2.5%57.3%
1.5%57.2%
1.5%49.5%
2.4%48.7%
1.5%37.9%
8.1%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19