Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L14-34 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L10-42 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W14-13 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L28-42 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L16-24 | |
| 7 | 10/08 | L20-22 | |
| 9 | 10/22 | Win prob:11% | |
| 10 | 10/29 | Win prob:17% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:53% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:15% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:36% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 0.0% | 67.9% |
| 5-3 | 0.7% | 5.5% |
| 4-4 | 5.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 20.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 36.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 28.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 7.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.3%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Missouri State
Louisiana TechMiddle Tennessee
Florida InternationalCCG: 0.7% • Scenario: 1.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Middle TennesseeCCG: 0.4% • Scenario: 10.7%
Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19