Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
33.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W41-24 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | W55-6 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L21-45 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W31-16 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W27-22 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | W27-24 | |
| 7 | 10/14 | L6-25 | |
| 8 | 10/21 | Win prob:48% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:81% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:85% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:9% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:30% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 10.0% | 99.1% |
| 6-2 | 38.0% | 59.4% |
| 5-3 | 39.2% | 3.2% |
| 4-4 | 11.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 33.1% (-0.6%) | 34.4% (+0.8%) | |
| 55.1% (+21.5%) | 13.7% (-20.0%) | |
| 35.0% (+1.3%) | 33.5% (-0.2%) | |
| 31.3% (-2.3%) | 37.0% (+3.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico StateWestern Kentucky
Middle Tennessee
Florida InternationalCCG: 64.0% • Scenario: 0.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Western KentuckyCCG: 55.1% • Scenario: 48.2%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.2%
1.0%Any 1 loss
87.8%
12.5%
99.0%
9.0%73.8%
0.2%72.3%
0.2%
61.6%
1.0%
55.9%
2.2%Any 2 losses
54.0%
38.0%76.5%
1.7%73.3%
2.1%59.6%
9.6%56.5%
21.1%6.7%
0.4%5.7%
0.5%3.2%
<0.1%2.6%
2.3%2.5%
0.2%1.2%
0.2%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19