Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W61-6 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W42-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W52-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W29-20 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W42-6 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L24-27 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W23-17 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:49% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:55% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:88% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:49% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:67% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 7.8% | 52.2% |
| 6-2 | 27.4% | 1.4% |
| 5-3 | 36.4% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 22.1% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5% (+0.1%) | 4.2% (-0.3%) | |
| 4.4% (-0.1%) | 5.5% (+1.0%) | |
| 4.5% (+0.0%) | 4.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.5% (+0.1%) | 4.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.3% (-0.2%) | 5.1% (+0.6%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.5%) | 6.5% (+2.0%) | |
| 8.9% (+4.4%) | 0.3% (-4.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kentucky
Mississippi State
LSU
Arkansas
Oklahoma
South CarolinaMissouriCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MissouriCCG: 8.9% • Scenario: 48.6%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
52.2%
7.8%Any 1 loss
1.4%
27.4%
1.8%
8.1%1.7%
3.9%1.3%
8.1%
1.1%
6.3%0.7%
1.0%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19