Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
13.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | Win prob:90% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:62% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:95% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:70% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:65% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:48% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:57% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:46% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:40% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:42% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:62% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:66% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 4.3% | 98.1% |
| 6-2 | 13.7% | 60.3% |
| 5-3 | 24.7% | 3.0% |
| 4-4 | 27.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 19.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 13.8% (+0.0%) | 13.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 13.7% (-0.1%) | 13.9% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 14.3% • Scenario: 4.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 13.9% • Scenario: 42.7%
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
98.0%
1.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%98.6%
0.3%98.4%
0.1%98.2%
0.2%98.1%
0.1%97.4%
0.2%96.6%
0.3%96.0%
0.1%Any 2 losses
71.5%
7.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%98.6%
0.1%98.5%
0.1%98.2%
0.2%98.2%
0.1%98.1%
0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.5%
0.2%96.8%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%77.4%
0.1%75.3%
0.1%69.4%
0.2%67.5%
0.1%66.2%
0.1%66.1%
<0.1%65.9%
0.1%65.8%
0.3%65.0%
0.4%63.5%
0.2%63.3%
<0.1%62.6%
0.1%62.5%
0.3%61.9%
0.2%61.5%
0.1%60.3%
0.2%59.3%
0.1%58.9%
0.2%58.5%
<0.1%56.8%
0.2%55.9%
0.2%54.2%
0.4%53.3%
0.1%51.4%
0.3%50.8%
0.2%49.0%
0.4%44.0%
0.1%Any 3 losses
30.0%
15.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.7%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.6%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.7%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%71.7%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.4%
0.1%67.8%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.4%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.2%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.0%
0.1%63.7%
0.2%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.4%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.4%
<0.1%62.2%
0.1%61.9%
0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.6%
0.2%61.5%
<0.1%61.0%
0.1%60.9%
0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.8%
0.1%60.6%
<0.1%60.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.2%
<0.1%58.8%
0.3%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.5%
0.1%56.4%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.4%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.4%
0.2%54.4%
<0.1%52.6%
0.1%52.4%
<0.1%52.3%
0.1%52.0%
0.2%51.3%
0.2%51.2%
<0.1%51.1%
<0.1%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.1%48.8%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.9%
0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.6%
0.2%4.5%
0.2%4.5%
0.2%4.4%
0.3%4.4%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.2%4.1%
0.2%4.1%
0.2%4.1%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.1%
0.3%3.4%
<0.1%3.2%
0.2%3.0%
0.5%2.9%
0.2%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
0.1%2.4%
0.5%2.4%
0.2%2.3%
0.2%2.3%
0.4%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.2%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.0%
0.2%1.9%
0.3%1.9%
0.4%1.8%
0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
0.2%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
0.3%Any 4 losses
14.5%
11.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.8%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.1%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.2%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.8%
0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.4%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%50.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.9%
<0.1%47.6%
0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.9%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%40.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
0.2%2.9%
0.2%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.2%2.8%
0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.2%2.2%
0.2%2.1%
0.3%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
0.2%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.3%
0.3%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%Data from 2024-08-23