Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | Win prob:53% | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:38% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:16% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:62% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:20% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:39% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:37% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:45% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:8% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:5% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:52% |
Data from 2024-08-23
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 8-1 | 0.0% | 86.7% |
| 7-2 | 0.2% | 19.8% |
| 6-3 | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| 5-4 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 19.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 30.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 26.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 12.3% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 2.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-08-23
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-08-23
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2024-08-23
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
21.7%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
15.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
10.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%Data from 2024-08-23